House Speaker Nancy Pelosi got some bad news.
It has Democrats nervous.
Nancy Pelosi was hit with one warning that had her contemplating retirement.
When Donald Trump was President, the first sign that Democrats would win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm was the fact that in 2017 and 2018, Democrats overperformed their 2016 vote totals in congressional special elections.
Now that Joe Biden is President, the shoe is on the other foot.
In a special election in Texas’s Sixth Congressional District, Republicans secured the top two spots in a 23-candidate field to advance to a runoff.
More disturbingly for Democrats, the vote share for the GOP candidates in the race added up to 62 percent and the Democrat total vote share was just 37 percent.
In 2020 Donald Trump carried the district by three points and Joe Biden won 48 percent of the vote.
The supercharged GOP turnout and the lackluster Democrat voter enthusiasm alarmed Jana Lynne Sanchez, the top vote-getter for Democrats in the race.
Sanchez told POLITICO the results of the Texas sixth special election set off an “alarm bell” about Democrats’ chances to hold their majority in 2022.
“It’s not a good omen. It’s not a good portend for 2022 that we got shut out,” Sanchez stated. “I’m sounding the alarm bell today, and I’m saying we really have to work hard.”
But depressed voter turnout is the least of the Democrats’ problems.
Swing district Democrats are starting to retire.
Illinois Congresswoman Cheri Bustos—who just led the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee—announced she would retire.
In a more ominous development, border district Democrats Ann Kirkpatrick and Filemón Vela of Florida and Texas announced their retirement.
Polls show Americans give Joe Biden his lowest numbers on immigration due to the public recognizing that Joe Biden created the border crisis by opening the border.
Kirkpatrick and Vela believe that Biden’s border crisis will serve as an anchor around their ankles next fall and retired rather than risk defeat.
Other Democrats are leaving the House under different circumstances, but election forecasters attribute their exits to the same fear of losing.
Pennsylvania Congressman Conor Lamb and Ohio Democrat Tim Ryan are interested in running for Senate rather than run in a risky re-election campaign.
This is Nancy Pelosi’s last term as Speaker.
In order to secure the votes to win the Speaker’s gavel in 2019, Pelosi promised to only serve two terms running the House.
The lights are flashing red that Democrats are in danger of losing the House.
If that happens, Pelosi will suffer the embarrassment of being swept out of power twice.
Should Pelosi believe that to be the case, she may pull a Paul Ryan and announce this is her last term in Congress ahead of the election.
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